ASK THE EXPERTS: No. 1: Hostile Narratives Eroding Support for Ukraine

The International Republican Institute (IRI)’s Beacon Project is launching a new expert comments series. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the IRI’s Beacon Project has been analyzing  online  media  data  from  several  Central  and  Eastern  European  Countries  to  track  key narratives that have the potential to erode support for Ukraine. This tracking and mapping of meta  narratives in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia is planned to continue  through June 2023. For more of our bi-weekly reports, go here. To begin, we have asked an international team of analysts to share their expert opinion and estimations  of  Russian  information  activities  and  their  countries’  internal  vulnerabilities.  In  addition  to  the aforementioned countries, we include guest experts from Germany and Ireland.

This inaugural report  will focus on the prospective evolution and impact of narratives monitored over the past several months through the end of this calendar year. Please note this prognosis is based on the expert opinions of researchers from the region.

This forecast has been prepared with support from IRI’s Beacon Project. The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not reflect those of IRI.

1. What is your estimation/forecast for the evolution and development of the 3 main narratives, that we were monitoring: Anti-Refugee, Anti-Sanction, Anti-NATO for the rest of the 2022?

Read part 2 of the forecast here: ASK THE EXPERTS: No. 1, part 2: Hostile Narratives Eroding Support for Ukraine